Friday, January 04, 2013

AAPL - Bearish Island

10:45 AAPL Update - LIS for bulls is 522 assuming this is a traditional low to high fib placement rather than an extension.

Caution, bearish island reversal has formed on AAPL chart.  If bulls don't defend HWB, AAPL is doomed to retest support once again.

Thursday, January 03, 2013

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Micro Short Broken

Last week AAPL broke the micro short with a short squeeze. Yesterday we gapped up to previous resistance (yellow line). Now we are consolidating the move.  I wouldn't be surprised if we fill yesterday's gap completely and bounce.  There is a small gap around $569 which could provide resistance as AAPL makes its way to our target of $605.00

Friday, December 21, 2012

AAPL Retest of Original Setup

The 15 min. chart of AAPL above shows that we retested the original 15 min. long setup on the open. A gap fill is being attempted.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

AAPL Line in the Sand

AAPL broke its micro ext. long.  Now the LIS for bulls is $514 which is the 61.8% Fib level of the full range, low to high.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Short-term Reversal

My prediction in my last post came true.  The micro short on the daily chart (left) traded to target. This  resulted in a slightly lower low with positive divergence of the RSI foreshadowing a short-term reversal.

How to take advantage of a  potential.reversal? Move to lower timeframe.  Look for:
  1.  Positive divergence of RSI to lower price.
  2. Wait for price to take out previous swing high.
  3. Wait for base to form - at least two relatively equal points form a base.  In this case AAPL touched 517 twice before retracing.
  4. Buy the ambush.
This setup has a very high success rate.  The success is measured on reaching the first target. The first target is the green dotted line -23.6% Fibonacci level.  Here we see that AAPL blew past 1st target very easily.  Now we are in the ambush zone of the next micro short.  Since the long traded 1st, and the setup was technically perfect, we expect the micro short to fail.

However, this still a counter-trend trade to take us back to the bigger setup at $605 which is an ambush short.